Monday, May 7, 2007

NSLDS Math

We've gotten several comments questioning our assuredness that no one was using NSLDS as a marketing prospecting tool. Well, we don't know for sure. But we'll lay out our NSLDS math and let you decide.

First of all....assumputions:

1. All entities were only given access to NSLDS via the web query form and results were displayed in a web query form. Otherwise, if you had raw access to the data, then sure, the database could be used for prospecting.
2. An auotmated "bot" is used to harvest the information. This is done by "screen scraping" the submission of an SSN and to harvest any underlying data.
3. There are 60,000,000 names in the NSLDS database.
4. Given the simple 9 digit Social Security Number, there are a billion possible SSN combinations. But applying a convention to how the number is constructed, that nets down to about 670 million.
5. A bot would, on average, take 15 seconds to evaluate whether or not a particular SSN exists i the database.
6. A bot would, on average, take 60 seconds to harvest, evaluate, and store an existing SSN.

Now for our NSLDS math. We're going to assume one pass thru the database only.

To merely evaluate if an SSN exists one would have to submit all 670 million SSN's. At 15 seconds per, thats 319 years of computing power.

Once those valid SSN's are identified, another 60 seconds are required for those 60 million records, that's 114 years of computing power.

There, according to our NSLDS math, it would take 433 YEARS of computing power to effectively comb thru the NSLDS data source. Sure there's probably a few shortcuts we could implement to get that down to 200 years, to be conservative. But that's still ludicrous to suggest that NSLDS is a prospecting source.

And we haven't even addressed the fact that NSLDS, in the form that's made available to lenders, does not display ANY indicative information: no address, no phone number, or no email. So some smarty pants goes thru and devises a clever, and very expensive, method to access NSLDS, but there's no frickin' way to contact those people.

It just doesn't make any sense what's been proposed by Sen. Kennedy and Amit Paley from the Washington Post. We're gonna stick to the math, you can't argue the math.

No comments: